Welcome back to your daily memorandum talking tech, business, AI, markets, and more. 🗞️

In today’s edition, we are tackling the following:

💼 Kalshi cofounder becomes female billionaire after platform hits eleven billion valuation
🌏 Vietnam stocks surge on reforms and rising foreign investment in manufacturing
🧠 OpenAI declares code red as model aims to outperform Google benchmarks
⚙️ Nvidia allowed H200 chip sales to China despite warnings of risks
🚨 U.S. seizes $50 million in Nvidia GPUs smuggled to China

TECHNOLOGY

• Bill Gates on Why AI Will Become Hyper Competitive (CNBC) 

  • Gates warned that not all high-valuation AI companies will succeed in the hyper-competitive market.

  • He stated AI represents deeply profound technology that will reshape the world despite valuation concerns.

  • Gates emphasized that AI will provide transformative benefits in health education and agriculture applications globally.

• From Llamas to Avocados: Meta Shifting AI Strategy Causing Internal Confusion (CNBC) 

  _{^{More: Stocktwits, Sherwood News}}

  • Meta is developing a proprietary AI model codenamed Avocado, delayed until the first quarter of 2026.

  • The company spent $14B hiring Scale AI founder and top researchers amid a strategy shift.

  • Avocado marks a potential departure from the open source approach after Llama architecture concerns with DeepSeek.

• OpenAI Sam Altman Google Code Red (WSJ) 

  _{^{More: Fortune, Fox Business, Tom's Hardware}}

  • Altman declared code red, focusing all resources on improving ChatGPT amid rising Google competition.

  • The company is delaying advertising plans for personal assistant Pulse and AI agents to prioritize the core product.

  • A new reasoning model releasing next week aims to outperform Google Gemini's three benchmark scores.

BUSINESS

• How Kalshis Luana Lopes Lara, Cofounder, Went From Professional Ballerina to World’s Youngest Self-Made Woman Billionaire (Forbes) 

  _{^{More: Fortune, Entrepreneur, VnExpress}}

  • Lopes Lara became the youngest self-made female billionaire at 29 after Kalshi's $11B valuation.

  • Former professional ballerina endured brutal training at the Bolshoi Theater School before studying MIT computer science.

  • Kalshi raised $1B with t12% stakes valuing cofounders at $1.3B each.

• Nvidia Shares Fall After Trump Allows Sale of AI Chips to China (Forbes) 

  _{^{More: CNBC, NBC News, Al Jazeera}}

  • Trump approved Nvidia H200 chip exports to approved China customers with a 25% revenue cut.

  • The H200 chip is six times more powerful than the previous H20 but excludes advanced Blackwell models.

  • Analysts warn move gives China advanced AI computing power, negating the biggest US strategic leverage point.

• Indian Tycoon Kiran Mazumdar Shaw’s Biocon Buyout Deal Values Biologics Unit at $50B (Forbes)

  • Biocon Biologics’ buyout values the company at $50B in a major pharmaceutical transaction.

  • The deal represents a significant consolidation move in India's rapidly growing biosimilar and biologics manufacturing sector.

  • The transaction is expected to strengthen Mazumdar Shaw's position in the global biopharmaceutical competitive landscape significantly.

• Avoid the $100K visa headache—go borderless*

  • U.S. companies are sidestepping new H-1B costs by hiring remote LATAM talent. Same time zones, fluent English, no red tape.

  • The H-1B Talent Crunch 2025 report reveals how forward-thinking teams scale faster and cut hiring costs by 70%.

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MARKETS

WORLD

• US Detains Two Men Accused of Smuggling Nvidia AI Gear to China (Bloomberg) 

  • The Justice Department seized $50M in advanced GPUs meant for China and restricted areas.

  • Defendants exported at least $160M worth of Nvidia chips illegally.

  • Smuggling scheme operated between October 2024 and May 2025, authorities stated.

• Political Shake Up Hits Hedge Fund Trade as Brazil Markets Swoon (Bloomberg)

  • Brazil is experiencing political turbulence, causing hedge funds to reassess positions amid dramatic market volatility.

  • Currency and equity markets are showing significant stress from unexpected government policy shifts and uncertainty.

  • Investors are reducing Brazil exposure as fiscal concerns and political instability weigh heavily on sentiment.

• Ukraine at Critical Moment in War, European Allies Ramp Up Russia Pressure (CNBC)

  • European nations are increasing military aid and diplomatic pressure on Russia at a pivotal moment.

  • Ukraine forces are facing critical battlefield decisions as the winter campaign intensifies across multiple fronts significantly.

  • Western allies are coordinating sanctions expansion and defense production ramp-up to sustain Ukrainian capabilities.

FUTURISM

• Vietnam Stock Market Is Booming in Twenty Twenty Five (CNBC)

  • The Vietnam stock market is surging with strong foreign investment inflows and economic reform momentum building.

  • Manufacturing sector growth and China diversification strategies are driving sustained equity market performance upward significantly.

  • Analysts predict continued expansion as Vietnam emerges as a key Southeast Asian investment destination.

• Can Influencer Marketing Evolve Beyond Social Media (CNBC)

  • Industry is exploring new platforms and formats as traditional social media influence strategies face saturation.

  • Brands are testing integrated approaches combining digital content with physical experiences and product collaborations increasingly.

  • Evolution driven by changing consumer preferences and declining engagement rates on established social platforms.

• AI Product Placement Movies (Futurism)

  • Studios are experimenting with AI-generated product placement inserted into films after production completion digitally.

  • Technology allows brands to appear in content without disrupting original filming or artistic vision.

  • Concerns raised about transparency, authenticity, and viewer trust as the technique becomes more sophisticated rapidly.

CONTENT

• Nvidia v. Google, Scaling Laws, and the Economics of AI (Invest Like the Best – Gavin Baker)

  • Gavin Baker analyzes Nvidia and Google’s competing AI strategies as compute demand rises and architectural advantages determine industry power.

  • He discusses how scaling laws reinforce concentration across semiconductors and cloud platforms while reshaping long-term investment opportunities.

  • Conversation highlights cost pressures, energy constraints, and why infrastructure providers may capture disproportionate value during the AI boom.

• Agent Reinforcement Fine-Tuning – Will Hang & Cathy Zhou (OpenAI)

  • Will Hang and Cathy Zhou explain reinforcement fine-tuning techniques enabling AI agents to learn improved reasoning through graded outputs.

  • They illustrate experimental workflows, evaluation systems, and reward modeling approaches that consistently strengthen structured decision-making performance.

  • Discussion explores emerging agent capabilities, operational reliability challenges, and safety considerations shaping deployment of advanced reasoning systems.

• The Job Market Has Changed (Tina Huang)

  • Tina Huang outlines shifting employer expectations as automation elevates technical adaptability, independent problem-solving, and continuous learning requirements.

  • She examines hiring trends prioritizing demonstrable skills, portfolio evidence, and practical outcomes rather than traditional credential-focused assessments.

  • Guidance emphasizes repositioning through targeted skill development aligned with rapidly evolving AI-driven workforce transformations worldwide.

EXTRAS

• Paramount Netflix Warner Bros Battle Ellisons (WSJ)

  • Paramount's hostile bid complicates Warner Bros Discovery acquisition, creating a media industry battle.

  • The Ellison family is backing the Paramount offer with Middle Eastern funds, challenging Netflix's $83B deal.

  • Outcome will reshape the streaming landscape and determine future consolidation patterns in the entertainment sector.

• Gaza Rubble Reconstruction Israel War (WSJ)

  • Gaza faces a massive reconstruction challenge with infrastructure devastation requiring decades and billions of dollars.

  • The international community is debating governance, security, and funding frameworks for potential rebuilding efforts.

  • The displaced population exceeds one million amid an ongoing humanitarian crisis and uncertain political future ahead.

• Argentina’s Richest Man Marcos Galperin on Stepping Down as MercadoLibre CEO (Bloomberg)

  • Galperin is stepping down as CEO after building MercadoLibre into Latin America's largest e-commerce platform.

  • The succession plan aims to professionalize management while the founder maintains strategic oversight board involvement.

  • The move signals the maturation of the Latin American tech sector, with second-generation leadership emerging gradually.

AND MORE

• Powerful 7.5-magnitude earthquake shakes northeastern Japan, triggering a tsunami warning and prompting mass evacuations.

• Authorities issue an elevated “megaquake” alert across Japan after a major seismic event off Aomori Prefecture.

• Anthropic rolls out its “Claude Code” integration inside Slack, enabling AI-driven coding directly in chats.

• Digital artist Beeple sells a $100.000 robot-dog artwork at auction, blending pop culture and high-end art sales.

• Government bond yields steady as investors await central bank rate cut signals.

• Reading these letters will give you a look inside the minds of some of the greatest leaders of our time.*

• 100 Nigerian schoolchildren were rescued after a mass kidnapping; several remain missing.

• EU scientists say 2025 will be the second or third-hottest year recorded.

• Global markets trade nervously ahead of the pivotal interest rate decision this week.